Episode 27 | A Conversation with GW Professor Tara Sinclair

In Episode 27 of “Market News with Rodney Lake,” Rodney Lake, Director of the GW Investment Institute, sits down with economist and GW Professor Tara Sinclair. They discuss the importance of early work experience for students and how internships or summer jobs can help individuals identify their interests, develop communication skills, and prepare for professional environments. Professor Sinclair also shares insights into the GW Center for Economics Research seminars, highlighting the opportunity to engage with economists and explore research areas such as microeconomics, international finance, and forecasting. Tune in to gain valuable career advice and learn about the economics department at GW!

Transcript

Episode 27

Rodney Lake
 Thank you for joining Market News with Rodney Lake. This is a regular program for the GW Investment Institute where we talk about timely market topics. I'm Rodney Lake, the director of the GW Investment Institute. Let's get started. Welcome back to Market News at Rodney Lake. I'm your host, Rodney Lake. And again, welcome back to the studio right here in the GW School of Business.

Rodney Lake
 This is a GW Investment Institute show. And today we have a special guest, Professor Sinclair. Professor Sinclair, right here from GW, Department of Economics. Thank you for coming to see us. To start with, maybe please introduce yourself a little bit further.

Tara Sinclair
 Sure. Hi, I'm professor Tara Sinclair. Please call me Tara, and I have been part of the GW economics department for nearly 20 years.

Rodney Lake
 Wow.

Tara Sinclair
 Yeah. So it's been quite, quite a quite a ride here. Yeah. Wonderful. But I've also done a lot of other things on the side. So I was the founding economist for the Indeed Hiring Lab talking to you about that.

Rodney Lake
 I just put a pin in that one.

Tara Sinclair
 And I was also the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics at the US Treasury.

Rodney Lake
 Right. Impressive. We're going to talk about that as well.

Tara Sinclair
 But in my day job here at the university, I teach macroeconomics and econometrics, and I run our Center for Economic Research.

Rodney Lake
 Excellent. Well, those are all super interesting things. And, you know, economics is near and dear to my heart. And finance department economics is a key feature. And we have lots of people who are trained in economics. First, you know, people say that finance is applied economics. So I think there's certainly a great connection there. But number one, let me just start by saying thank you very much for being on the show.

Rodney Lake
 We're super excited to have you here and looking very much forward to talking about your work at GW. So maybe first let's talk about your classes. So, can you talk about your classes and maybe talk about the kinds of students you teach?

Tara Sinclair
 Sure. So I teach everything from intermediate undergraduates up through PhD students. I've never taught a range, but, but but everything else in between. And most of my classes focus on tools. So econometrics, forecasting, different methods, although I also really care about macroeconomic issues. And so I sometimes teach intermediate macroeconomics for the undergrads.

Rodney Lake
 And so for maybe, maybe let's dive into the classes while we're here. So for econometrics, could you just give maybe an example of what a student would encounter in an econometrics class?

Tara Sinclair
 Sure. So, my favorite class to teach is actually undergraduate Introduction to Econometrics, because it's the introduction to this amazing toolkit. That is really what a lot of undergrads go and apply in their early career. And so they're able to do regression analysis to be able to explore potential causal relationships between variables. They're able to look at data sets with whole new lenses and be able to learn about the world through data and through statistical analysis.

Rodney Lake
 Sounds like a great class. It's really fun. It's a class I should take.

Tara Sinclair
 Everyone should take this class. If there's one thing that people should take away, it's at least take an introduction to econometrics class.

Rodney Lake
 And what year typically, a student takes this.

Tara Sinclair
 Ideally as a sophomore, but juniors and seniors as well. And then of course, you know if you didn't take it undergrad there's still plenty of time. There are, introductory classes at the master's level as well.

Rodney Lake
 So in addition to econometrics, what other favorite classes do you have?

Tara Sinclair
 Well, they're all my favorites in different ways, right? You know, you want to choose as your darlings too much there. But, I think the course I'm going to be teaching in the spring, I'm expecting to become one of my favorites. Brand new. Oh, exciting. It's all.

Rodney Lake
 Started here first.

Tara Sinclair
 Exactly. Yeah. It's an undergraduate class. Again. But it's, forecasting.

Rodney Lake
 Oh, excellent.

Tara Sinclair
 Super important. Yes.

Rodney Lake
 The last a little bit on your background seems like.

Tara Sinclair
 Exactly. I can actually give some of my research back on connection with some of my applied work background, but it's also another opportunity to help students who have who've taken already an intro to econometrics class what they want. They want to go further and they want to see how these tools can be used. Excellent. And there's such a wide range of applications to forecasting.

Tara Sinclair
 Obviously, my experience focuses on economics, but there is a lot in the finance world. I'm sure people are going to want to write papers on how to forecast the stock market, and then it will be like.

Rodney Lake
 Super helpful, right? If you can make it work right. It's very hard as you pointed out.

Tara Sinclair
 Right?

Rodney Lake
 Thank you very much. Well, sticking with GW and we might come back to some of this, but sticking with GW. Could you maybe talk about the center that you run?

Tara Sinclair
 Sure. So I run the center for Economic Research, and it is a wide ranging center because it's supporting all sorts of economic research. Okay. The endowed program that we have and that was my home before I moved into the center just this past year as being a doctor. I was previously director of the Steckler Forecasting program. So it's an endowed program under the center that focuses on forecasting writ large.

There's a large amount of application to economic forecasting that we've done all sorts of different kinds of forecasting.

Rodney Lake
 Any mention a few of.

Tara Sinclair
 Maybe some.

Rodney Lake
 Highlights.

Tara Sinclair
 Yeah. So so one example this is this is one one really interesting one is that Veterans Affairs Office needs to be able to predict the, death of veterans in order to prepare the appropriate number of slots at veterans. When we when we call this, the burial area.

That's right. Cemeteries. Yes. And, so, you know, I always get sad when I think about, but, yeah, this.

Rodney Lake
 Is the actuarial piece of it, right?

Tara Sinclair
 Right. Yeah. So they have to think about those cemetery plots. And so looking into the different variables that they take into consideration and how it the actuarial aspect of things is different for veterans than for non veterans, of course. And those sorts of issues.

Rodney Lake
 It's a subset of population.

Tara Sinclair
 Exactly.

Rodney Lake
 It probably has very specific characteristics associated with it that others probably don't have.

Tara Sinclair
 Exactly, exactly. So it's a it's a fascinating problem that is a real world application that our government agencies are needing.

Rodney Lake
 No. Look, it's important work, right? I mean, you certainly want to have, you know, as you mentioned, this is a sad thing, but it's, you know, it's forecasting. And so you're looking into the future. And one thing that's even sadder is not being ready right now. And having a veteran not have a space available when it's needed and necessary.

So I think that's, as you mentioned, a little sad to think about, but super important to address and do. So. This is hard work. Other you have other forecasting items that you could could mention, right?

Tara Sinclair
 So we partner with the federal forecasters Consortium, which is a group of over ten different federal government agencies that do forecasting. So, you know, the Treasury is one of our partners. So when I was working at Treasury, I was still part of of this organization.

Rodney Lake
 That.

Tara Sinclair
 It definitely was. Yes. We actually hosted the conference at Treasury that year. So I was it was definitely double duty. But so, so we think about issues from forecasting the government budget deficits to issues in, you know, the climate. So longer run forecasting issues. It's just it's super wide ranging.

Rodney Lake
 Excellent. Now that's some of the things that currently happens at the center. For economic research. Could you maybe mention like, where you would like to take the center and what's the vision for the center? Maybe over the next 5 to 10 years?

Tara Sinclair
 Yeah. Well, so what we really want to do is use this center as a way to amplify the economic research that's happening at GW.

Rodney Lake
 Fantastic.

Tara Sinclair
 And so we want to be able to use it to help people collaborate more, to connect with with funders and with grants and basically just to better market the academic research that's already happening as well as help people find each other and learn about other areas of research and develop our our PhD students and our master's students as well.

Our applied master's students are also very involved in the center.

Rodney Lake
 Excellent. And one of our own at the Investment Institute, Kathleen Hinman, shout out to Kathleen is a student in the applied Economics master's program. All right. So let's we're going to come back to GW. So now but let's let's go off, to some of the things you did in industry and, and government. So let's tackle first industry.

So you said, you had worked for indeed. And could you maybe elaborate on what you did there?

Tara Sinclair
 Yeah. So my time in indeed was amazing. So I am an indeed alum forever. I still have a lot of Indian swag all over my house, so we had a lot of fun. It was it was definitely a lot of fun. But it was it was also an incredible work experience because I came in in, about 2013.

Rodney Lake
 Okay. So a little.

Tara Sinclair
 While ago, a while ago. Right. And so this was before tech firms really thought about having economists, and in particular having chief economists or econ teams as part of a tech firm. Interesting. And, you know, for indeed, it made perfect sense for them to be on the vanguard of that because they are both a tech firm as well as a labor market for their job search site.

Rodney Lake
 Yeah.

Tara Sinclair
 So of course they're thinking about economics and how the labor market.

Rodney Lake
 Idea to think about those things.

Tara Sinclair
 Right. But they also recognize they had all this amazing data, of course.

Rodney Lake
 Yeah.

Tara Sinclair
 And they said, who could work with this data and put it together to draw economic insights that could be useful? And I popped my head up and volunteered and said, I would love to have the opportunity to work with your data. And I had this idea I was going to be able to build time series forecasting models with their data, and it took ten years to really get to that point.

Rodney Lake
 And sometimes that's what happens, right?

Tara Sinclair
 It takes a long.

Rodney Lake
 Time to do this in a year.

Tara Sinclair
 I feel that it was 100% what I thought going into it. I mean, the hubris of academics. Right. But I learned so much about data structures and all the sorts of issues in terms of trying to use private sector data for these big macroeconomic questions. And then, of course, I also got to work with data scientists and learn about their work data engineers.

But then I also got to talk to recruiters and job seekers and learn about the experience. It is incredibly wide-ranging in terms of what a job search means to different groups of people.

Rodney Lake
 Without giving anything, you know, a way that's proprietary or the secret sauce or indeed, could you maybe talk about some of the things that was really interesting for you while you were there?

Tara Sinclair
 Well, I think what's really cool about indeed, from an economics data perspective, is that they had when I was there, I had over 60 different economies, and in large part, it's similar across all those different economies. And it's really hard to get comparable data across countries. And so actually the ongoing academic research that I still have going with their data is taking advantage of this commonality in terms of the data and the types of markets that are happening across countries, when, of course, countries have been doing very, very different economic policies.

Right? So we can use it to kind of say which economic policies.

Rodney Lake
 Are working.

Tara Sinclair
 Better. Yeah.

Rodney Lake
 Interesting. And which maybe not. Right. That's super fun. Any expected publications forthcoming on that?

Tara Sinclair
 Well, we've got a revise and resubmit for a remote work paper. You know, everybody had to write a remote work paper.

Rodney Lake
 Necessary at one.

Tara Sinclair
 Point. It was necessary. At one point, we were actually, you know, pretty near the beginning of that because we had a remote work tag on the job posting, and so we could actually watch firms like suddenly, because I was into flexible work before it was cool. And I had actually done some earlier research on flexible work and how much job seekers wanted that.

And then to just see employers suddenly finally offering and spiking in response to the pandemic and pandemic policies, but just seeing that and then seeing it persist for such a long time, what we really saw was this structural shift where once employers realized, you know, kind of let that technology out of the box, right.

Rodney Lake
 Hard to put back.

Tara Sinclair
 Very hard to put back.

Rodney Lake
 And maybe a follow-up question there. Maybe you're disconnected with this part of it is there's lots of discussion around this remote work now not to get a total sidetrack, but I'm curious if you have any insight to this. Do you think that this shift will shift back, or do you think that there will be a modification? Maybe at the same level that it is now won't exist 3 or 5 years from now, but it will still exist? Just curious, your thoughts.

Tara Sinclair
 My own take on this is that we've really seen that Zoom and other sorts of technologies existed pre-pandemic. And what would have normally happened without the pandemic would have been a slow adoption of them evolving over time. And so, basically, you brought five years' worth of advance forward in a few months.

And then we're still kind of settling in to that. But there's still going to be continued evolution along the lines of these technologies. And I think we're still trying to figure out exactly what mix of work works for different people, different types of jobs, different employers. And so Nick Bloom at Stanford, he's got a great portfolio of research where one of the things that he's emphasizing is the importance of hybrid work because then you get some of those benefits of flexibility that you also continue to get the building of company culture and interaction between work, which is hard to do remotely.

Rodney Lake
 It is.

Tara Sinclair
 So some companies do it well. Indeed was actually the team that I worked on was fully remote. The whole time that I was there. So I did see one example.

Rodney Lake
 Yes.

Tara Sinclair
 And I think some companies can do it well, but a lot of companies can't.

Rodney Lake
 Depends on the mix of jobs too. So it's probably also hard to say, like even if it worked for this particular thing, it's hard to say okay. Extrapolate that against all. It may not work because the mix of things and the activities are different, and it might be harder to reproduce that same result.

Tara Sinclair
 Right. Well, and one of the key things that I'm really focused on and concerned about is the training and mentorship of new people into a job because if they aren't able to just pop by and ask somebody or easily Slack someone, if it starts to become a more complicated ordeal to get advice, get help, then we may be putting ourselves in a weaker position.

And then if we can still have those kinds of relationships and grow that next generation of workers.

Rodney Lake
 And I often mention that to my students is that, you know, it's really important, especially when you're starting, to try to be in the office as much as you can. Just because until sort of the technology fully replaces that set up, it's very challenging to tackle all these things all at once, you know, learn the job, meet the people, understand the culture of this new place.

And so being in person, I think, helps. Some of that. And that's the advice that I also give to my students. All right. So before we move on from Indeed, and we're going to tackle next the Treasury here. What is your takeaway now? It sounds like you still have some ongoing work with them. But you know, maybe ten years later, what's the look back right now?

Tara Sinclair
 In terms of the.

Rodney Lake
 Just like lessons learned, that's thing, most fun thing that you did most, you know, interesting or unexpected, you know, outcome. Yeah.

Tara Sinclair
 Well, I mean, so the I always say I came for the day and I stayed for the people and, you know, the people you work with really matters. And you can really have an amazing work experience, even if you're facing a lot of data challenges, which I, I definitely faced a lot of those. But, you know, in some sense, fighting in the data trenches together really built a very cohesive team.

Tara Sinclair
 We're all still very close and text each other regularly. But I think in terms of the overall experience, there are two things I'll highlight. The first one is there's often this idea that I think is settle down a little bit, but a few years ago, there was this sense of the private companies. They have the data, right?

Tara Sinclair
 And they need to give the data, to the government or something like that, in order to be able to improve government statistics and that sort of thing. But that's not how it works at all. There isn't this magical, perfectly organized thing called the data right?

Rodney Lake
 Nobody said, you know, busy, you know, organizing it, you know, right, for no reason.

Tara Sinclair
 Right. And they're not organizing it in any way that we'd be applicable to the government needs. And so even if we did have some magical just plug in, all we'd get is, you know, big, massive different files that are organized in a way that makes sense for that business. And so that was one of the things we thought a lot about it, indeed, is where are the the pieces of data that are aligned with what we're wanting to measure anyway?

Tara Sinclair
 And it's really hard to take things that were gathered for a completely different purpose and repurpose them. But if you look for things where your job seekers are responding to questions because they're doing it in order to make their application look stronger, but then we're like, okay, then they're they're answering these questions probably truthfully, because you don't want to get into a job that you're not actually prepared for.

Rodney Lake
 Not.

Tara Sinclair
 Right, right. So we would look at things like that. We would try to really align the research question with how people were using the product. But the other thing, so probably the thing I'm most proud of, of what we did there was we built something called the Policy Partners. Or.

Tara Sinclair
 Partner project, I think it had three P's. That's the one. The important thing was that it was a partnership with a bunch of policymakers around the world where. And we actually started this project in response to Brexit. So we were partnering with the Bank of England, okay, with this idea that we were going to do a study about the labor market impacts of Brexit.

Rodney Lake
 Interesting.

Tara Sinclair
 And then we realized when the pandemic hit and we were still working on this Brexit project because research takes time, right. That all of the legal agreements that we had built, because that was a lot, a lot of this was about legal agreements. And how are we going to share this data in a way that makes sense for the users of the indeed products protect them, but also achieve the policymakers goals.

Rodney Lake
 Your constituents?

Tara Sinclair
 Exactly. Many different constituents. So you have to work with the lawyers. But because we had figured this all out for this Brexit project with Bank of England, we said we can actually use this as a template to expand because the pandemic in some ways was like that. Brexit shock. Yeah, except it hit the whole world.

Rodney Lake
 Yeah, everybody.

Tara Sinclair
 And so we were able to share data with the IMF, the world Bank and various Federal Reserve banks, other central banks around the world. And that also became something that we shared publicly. So there's still, data available on the indeed website now that's been cleaned and organized and is useful for decisions that policymakers would make, but also that governments would make interesting.

Rodney Lake
 Well, it sounds like it was super exciting and I appreciate you talking about it. So now let's move on to the Treasury. So, you worked with Janet Yellen. It sounds super exciting and super fun. Certainly a very recognizable name and organization. Could you maybe talk about your work at the Treasury, and your time there?

Tara Sinclair
 Sure. So first of all, so I was a political appointee, and there's a small number of political appointees at most agencies and definitely at Treasury. I believe there are about 100 of us total, about 80,000 total employees. So any of these federal agencies, including the Treasury, really run by career civil servants. But there's this small group of political appointees that come in for a short period of time.

Tara Sinclair
 And the way I like to think about it is we're just moving at two totally different speeds, okay? Because the career civil servants are there. They're trying to do the deep work. They're trying to keep everything running. They're trying to keep like the historical understanding of the roles going. And then we come in and we say, I've got these three things, and I need to know them right now.

Rodney Lake
 Right.

Tara Sinclair
 And because there's this amazing team of people that are keeping track of all that information, they're able to answer my questions very quickly. Nice. And, and then, of course, you know, they have reasonable work hours. The political appointees were there for a short period of time. We can just run the whole time. But it was it was just an amazing experience because I learned so much.

Tara Sinclair
 Because the way I really took it is I was there, I, I was coming up with some of the questions, and I was trying to anticipate what Janet Yellen was going to ask and her questions.

Rodney Lake
 And it's not easy.

Tara Sinclair
 But she's an amazing boss and made made all of it very easy.

Rodney Lake
 Excellent.

Tara Sinclair
 But, I would either anticipate her questions or I would get her questions and I would pass it down to the team and then, you know, collate those answers and pass them back up. So I learned a lot about packaging up information because Janet Yellen had a lot going on. Sure. So I needed to really get her the precise, crisp answer to our question.

Tara Sinclair
 And nothing, nothing more. Although she's an economist. So we always wanted, there's always more. We always wanted to talk in more depth. And occasionally there would be an opportunity for a little bit more depth on some key questions.

Rodney Lake
 That's cool. Yeah. And what was the maybe takeaway from Treasury? Like what was the most fun thing that you did there and that you mentioned? It's a shorter period of time. It's a, you know, one and 100. It sounds like set up. So what's the, you know, takeaway most fun thing, most interesting, unexpected?

Tara Sinclair
 Well, I think it's just the range of things because. So when I was there I had to deal with the March 2023 banking turmoil. So I had to suddenly learn about banking. Right. And the connections between banks and the real side of the economy, because that was my, my focus was more on what's this going to mean for GDP, employment and the sorts of things.

Tara Sinclair
 And of course, I spent a lot of time thinking about inflation because that was, that's not the case at that time. But then I also got to learn about climate issues and how we think about climate for our macroeconomic forecasts and how to do that better. Okay. We, you know, just so wide range privacy, very.

Rodney Lake
 Topical as well.

Tara Sinclair
 Yes. Yes. And so every day I would go in in the morning and I would have no idea how my, my day was going to go. And that was incredibly fun.

Rodney Lake
 Yeah, I'm sure. Well, I'm sure that sounds like a ton of fun. And so you, you guys helped save the banking industry from another, you know, massive well done there. To everyone that seemed very short lived, which I think everybody appreciated. But, you know, I'm sure there were people that were hurt during that. We feel for them.

Rodney Lake
 But certainly the system held up and and prevailed and kept moving on. So let's now come back, to GW. So thanks for, talking about your time and industry and time in government. I think that's super important. And certainly as an educator, I'm sure that helps give such a broad, you know, range of experience that you can share with your students.

Rodney Lake
 And, you know, all that work is helpful for them to understand that how big the world of economics actually is. So if they're thinking about that. So maybe let's now dive into that. So if a student is studying economics or is even thinking about studying economics, or maybe it's even just anybody who's watching a, our show or listening to it, you know, what advice would you give to them about, you know, what are the reasons to study economics?

Tara Sinclair
 I think there's really so many wide ranging reasons to study economics. First and foremost, I think it's a great way to just keep various doors open, because when you're studying economics, you're learning things that could be applicable to industry, to government, you could do it as a pre-law degree. You could do it as a premed degree. You could do it.

Tara Sinclair
 Economics just really gives you a breadth of exposure to a substantial amount of mass tools. As I mentioned before, with econometrics for causal analysis, thinking through historical episodes and lessons to learn from history. So it really just gives you a, I think, a pretty broad exposure to.

Rodney Lake
 A great foundation.

Tara Sinclair
 To.

Rodney Lake
 Really any discipline you build on top of that's that's wonderful. So next, the next question is, you know, you've been here more than 20 years at GW, as you mentioned. Could you give us maybe a highlight? You're maybe only at GW moment, as people like to say, or some of some of your favorite things from your time so far?

Tara Sinclair
 GW oh, there are so many, but I think the big one that I just revel in all the time is how much my students know about what is happening in the government. And not just the US government, but around the world. So at any one time, I can ask a question of my class about whatever's in the news, and they're not only going to read the news, they're going to know someone who was involved in that news making event, or they are going to be like, oh, this afternoon, actually, I have to go and work in my internship, and we're going to have to deal with that issue.

Tara Sinclair
 I mean, it's just amazing what the students are doing in terms of their internships and in terms of just their own voracious reading of what's going on. And I think that's a really amazing set of students to have.

Rodney Lake
 Well, excellent. And so, maybe now move into wrap here. Thank you for spending so much time with us today. Could you talk about, you know, what advice you would give the students? Doesn't have to be for economics, just, you know, advice for students at GW. You know, if I'm a student at GW, again, if you're considering being a student anywhere, what advice to be a successful student?

Tara Sinclair
 I think the first thing is to not feel like you have to have everything figured out and that if you don't know what you want to do yet, that's great. Develop your foundations, get some some skills. Know I'm a big fan of arguing for math and statistics. But.

Rodney Lake
 I agree.

Tara Sinclair
 But also, you know, developing your writing skills, those sorts of things are very important as well. And then from there, I think it will it will evolve over time and come. The other thing I think is really important is to get some work experience. I know lots of students who focus only on their studies. Here at GW, we have a lot of internships and great things like that that a lot of students are doing, but there are still those students that are like, I have a 4.0, should I be able to get a job, right?

Tara Sinclair
 I mean, when they finish. Yeah. But getting some work experience, doing a small job during the school year or doing a summer job, I think really makes a huge difference, both in helping you identify what you do and don’t like about a workplace.

Rodney Lake
 Which is.

Tara Sinclair
 Important. It's very important. But also just gives you some of those skills that might help you even communicating with professors, communicating with other people in a more formal environment that you'll learn on the job.

Rodney Lake
 Well, I think that's sound advice. All right. So now to close, anything that you would like to say about the center, about yourself, you know, any shout outs that you would like to give now?

Tara Sinclair
 Let's get it right. So many shout outs that, that I think I will, I will wrap up with really encouraging students to come to our seminars. And this is a great way to meet economists and to see what research economics looks like. And for a lot of people in undergrad and even in master's programs, they don't really know how economists interact as researchers unless they come and see these academic seminars.

We've got seminars and microeconomics and trade and development in, macro and international finance, as well as in forecasting and all of those are, you know, advertised through our events page on the economics website. But also the university calendar highlights them as well. And I think that's a great opportunity to come in and get involved in a little community.

Rodney Lake
 Awesome. Well, I think that's where we’ll end. Thank you for sharing that. So we'll wrap. I want to say thank you for spending time with us, Professor Sinclair. Good luck with all your initiatives. And thanks for bringing all this wonderful experience to GW and staying here for more than two decades, and we hope you'll be back on the show as well.

Tara Sinclair
 Okay, well, thank you so much. It was such a pleasure to talk with you.

Rodney Lake
 Thank you. All right. Now that's a wrap. We'll see you on the next episode of Market News with Rodney Lake. Thank you.

Rodney Lake
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Rodney Lake
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